| Indicator | Value | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidation | 700 million | Moderate |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 70 | Positive |
| Fed rate | High | Negative |
| Upward positions | 60% | Medium-term positive impact |
| Liquidity level | $95,000 – $103,000 | Bounce Potential |
| PMI | 54.1% | Economic expansion |
| JS | Stable | Labour market stability |
The Red Market: Why? La Fed, Trump, Onchain Analysis by Julien Roman
The night was short, and the California fires added a dramatic touch to the news. But today we are going to focus on the crypto market, which fell significantly yesterday, with a fall of -5%. What are the reasons for this correction? We will explore two main reasons that have led to these current levels. Currently we are around 95,000, and there is a risk of breaking the 94,000, but a rebound on the uphill trendline is possible. We will examine the negative and positive points, as well as the two main reasons for this correction.
Reasons for the correction
The first reason for this correction is related to the liquidation of $700 million Over the last 24 hours. Although this may seem important, it is relatively low compared to the $1.3 billion liquidated a few weeks ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 70, which remains rather positive despite the correction. We will also see other onchain indicators that show that higher levels are possible. The second reason is related to Donald Trump’s statement, which announced a reduction in taxes, regulations and an increase in wages. This announcement has an impact on the market, particularly on the Fed’s current high interest rates.
Impact of Fed interest rates
High Fed interest rates have a negative impact on the market. Trump compared this situation with that of 2017, where a strong dollar had reduced investment capacity. This has hampered competitiveness and economic growth, affecting the profits of businesses. After Trump’s statement in 2017, the dollar dropped, triggering a major rally on risky assets like cryptocurrency. We will see how this situation could happen again.
| Indicator | Value | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidation | 700 million | Moderate |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 70 | Positive |
| Fed rate | High | Negative |
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Bitcoin Market Analysis: Battle between Short Holders and Longterm Holders
The Bitcoin market is currently undergoing a period of turbulence, marked by a battle between short holders and long term holders. Short holders, which have held their assets for less than 155 days, are mainly motivated by market sentiments. The latter, in fear of a 5% decrease, tend to sell, which contributes to the fall of the market. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin has already experienced much larger decreases, up to 15% or 30%. This situation also shows a decline in terms of accumulation since December 5, 2024, which implies a decrease in the action of the price of Bitcoin.
On the other hand, the longterm holders, who have held their assets for longer, show a slight increase in their supply after a peak in sales. This battle between the two groups is quite fascinating and shows the complexity of the market. Short holders sell, while whales accumulate, creating a complex market dynamics.
Looking at the onchain indicators, liquidations reached 700 million, with a peak of one billion. The liquidation hitmap suggests that Bitcoin could reach liquidity levels around $95,000, with a possibility of rebounding to $103,000. In addition, more than 60% of Bitcoin positions are currently rising, which is a bullish indicator.
Market Feelings and Impact of Short Holders
The short holders are playing a crucial role in the current fall in the market. These short-term, fear-driven holders sell their assets in the face of a 5% decline. However, it is essential to remember that Bitcoin has already experienced much larger decreases. This situation also shows a decline in terms of accumulation since December 5, 2024, which implies a decrease in the action of the price of Bitcoin. Market sentiments are therefore a key factor to monitor, as they can influence investors’ decisions in the short term.
Role of Longterm Holders and Whale Accumulation
The longterm holding companies, on the other hand, show a slight increase in their supply after a peak sale. These long-term holders, who believe in the intrinsic value of Bitcoin, continue to accumulate despite market turbulence. This accumulation by whales shows confidence in the future growth potential of Bitcoin. The battle between short holding companies and long-term holding companies is therefore a key indicator of market dynamics.
Indicators Onchain and Future Outlook
Onchain indicators show that liquidations reached 700 million, with a peak of 1 billion. The liquidation hitmap suggests that Bitcoin could reach liquidity levels around $95,000, with a possibility of rebounding to $103,000. In addition, more than 60% of Bitcoin positions are currently rising, which is a bullish indicator. These indicators show some market maturity in the face of panic and confidence in the current Bitcoin corrections.
| Indicator | Value | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Liquidation | 700 million | Short-term negative impact |
| Upward positions | 60% | Medium-term positive impact |
| Liquidity level | $95,000 – $103,000 | Bounce Potential |
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Key Indicators and Crypto Market Inquiry
The crypto market is currently undergoing a period of uncertainty, influenced by several key economic indicators. The PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) increased by 54.1%in November. This increase indicates an economic expansion, but it is also accompanied by an anticipation of Fed rates. The markets foresee stagnation of rates at the next WTO meeting in 21 days, with a 93% consensus for a status quo. However, this stagnation could introduce uncertainty, which is reflected in the current movements of the crypto market.
Catalysts of the Market
Two major indicators currently influence the crypto market: the PMI and the JS (Jobles Claims). IMP increased by 54.1%, showing economic expansion, while JS indicates relative stability. These indicators are crucial to anticipating the Fed’s decisions on interest rates. The Fed takes into account several factors, including unemployment, inflation, debt, and real estate, when deciding to maintain, decrease or increase rates. Currently, stagnation is expected, but this may change according to the next economic data.
Draw Downs and Corrections
Draw downs, or corrections, are a natural part of market cycles. We have experienced more significant corrections in the pastLike that of March 2024 where the price of Bitcoin went from $73,000 to a significant drop. Currently, we observe a 61% correction, which is normal after a parabolic climb. These corrections allow the market to breathe and prepare for new peaks. It is essential not to panic and see these corrections as opportunities to return to the market with a solid strategy.
| Indicator | Current value | Impact on the market |
|---|---|---|
| PMI | 54.1% | Economic expansion |
| JS | Stable | Labour market stability |
| Fed rate | Anticipated stagnation | Uncertainty on the market |
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FAQ
What are the main reasons for the recent correction of the crypto market?
What are the main reasons for the recent correction of the crypto market?
The two main reasons for the correction are: 1) The liquidation of $700 million over the last 24 hours, although this amount is relatively small compared to $1.3 billion liquidated a few weeks ago. 2) Donald Trump’s statement announcing a reduction in taxes, regulations and wage increases, which has an impact on the Fed’s interest rates.
What is the impact of the Fed’s high interest rates on the crypto market?
What is the impact of the Fed’s high interest rates on the crypto market?
High Fed interest rates have a negative impact on the crypto market. They reduce investment capacity and hinder competitiveness and economic growth, which weighs on business profits. This can also influence investor decisions and market movements.
What is the role of short holders in the current fall of the Bitcoin market?
What is the role of short holders in the current fall of the Bitcoin market?
Short holders, which have held their assets for less than 155 days, are mainly motivated by market sentiments. In fear of a 5% decline, they tend to sell, which contributes to the fall of the market.
How do the longterm holders influence the Bitcoin market?
How do the longterm holders influence the Bitcoin market?
Longterm holding companies, which have held their assets for longer, show a slight increase in their supply after a peak in sales. They continue to accumulate in spite of market turbulence, showing confidence in the potential future rise of Bitcoin.
What are the onchain indicators to monitor to understand the future prospects of the Bitcoin market?
What are the onchain indicators to monitor to understand the future prospects of the Bitcoin market?
The onchain indicators to be monitored include liquidations, which reached $700 million, and upward positions, which represent more than 60% of Bitcoin’s positions. The liquidation hitmap suggests that Bitcoin could reach liquidity levels around $95,000, with a possibility of rebounding to $103,000.
What is the impact of the PMI on the crypto market?
What is the impact of the PMI on the crypto market?
The PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) increased by 54.1%, indicating an economic expansion. However, this increase is accompanied by an anticipation of Fed rates, which introduces uncertainty in the crypto market.
How do draw downs and corrections influence the crypto market?
How do draw downs and corrections influence the crypto market?
Draw downs, or corrections, are a natural part of market cycles. They allow the market to breathe and prepare for new peaks. For example, after a parabolic climb, a 61% correction is normal and can be seen as an opportunity to return to the market with a solid strategy.