Impact of Presidential Elections on the Cryptocurrency Market: Analysis and Prospects

In the run-up to the five-day presidential elections, the global market, including the cryptocurrency market, is preparing for a potentially transformative event. Elections often act as a major catalystinfluence economic and financial trends. The month of October, often nicknamed « October up », showed a notable upswing performance, with a positive monthly closing. This upward trend is marked by a significant price oscillation, ranging from 59,000 to nearly $74,000, highlighting market volatility and optimism. However, a minor correction has recently been observed, influenced by fluctuations in political polls, especially those concerning Donald Trump. He also expressed his support for Bitcoin holders, stressing the growing importance of cryptocurrency in the current political discourse. The crucial question is how Trump’s election could transform the cryptocurrency landscape.

Market Trends in October

October was marked by a significant upward trend in the cryptocurrency market. This period, often called « October up », saw a 10% increase in performance, with prices ranging from $59,000 to $74,000. This positive dynamic is attributed to a new trend that emerges after seven months of stagnation. The closing of the month in the green for the second consecutive month reinforces investor optimism.

Influence of Elections on the Market

The upcoming presidential elections have a direct impact on the cryptocurrency market. Fluctuations in the polls, particularly those concerning Donald Trump, caused minor corrections. For example, a decrease in Trump’s probability of victory over Polymarket resulted in a 4% correction. This phenomenon shows how political events can influence investor decisions and market volatility.

The US presidential elections are often a moment of great uncertainty and opportunities for the cryptocurrency market. The potential impact of Donald Trump’s election on Bitcoin and crypto in general is a hot topic. Trump expressed his intention to make the United States the world capital of Bitcoin, both in terms of mining and reserves. This ambition could transform the crypt landscape, especially considering its criticism of the current Biden administration policy, which it accuses of waging a war against crypto.

Trump also promised to replace key figures such as Gary Gensler of the SEC and Jerome Powell of the Fed, which could signal a radical change in cryptocurrency regulation. This perspective is perceived as « bullish » by many investors, who hope that these political changes will promote a more welcoming environment for Bitcoin and other cryptos in the United States.

In parallel, Trump’s communication, often spectacular, plays a crucial role in his campaign. For example, his staging in a garbage truck to respond to Biden’s criticisms has captured media attention and reinforced his position in the polls. This ability to manipulate public opinion could also influence the crypto market, depending on its future statements and actions.

Trump’s Promises for the Crypto

Donald Trump has made it clear that he wants to make the United States a world leader in the field of Bitcoin. He plans to transform the country into a hub for bitcoin mining and possession. This ambition is accompanied by the desire to replace influential figures like Gary Gensler of the SEC, perceived as an obstacle to the adoption of cryptocurrency. Can Trump really change the deal for crypto in the United States? This issue remains open, but its promises have already generated cautious optimism among crypto investors.

The US presidential elections often coincide with major events in the cryptocurrency world, including the halving of Bitcoin. In 2016 and 2020, these periods were marked by significant increases in Bitcoin prices, from $1,000 to $20,000 in 2016, and from $20,000 to $69,000 in 2020. The crucial question is whether 2024 will follow this upward trend. The last two months, September and October, have been closed in the green, which statistically often precedes a bullish rally. This trend could continue in November, especially if Donald Trump, known for his pro-crypto positions, is elected. However, volatility remains a factor to be controlled, as it can rapidly reverse market trends.

Elections and Halving: A Strategic Coincidence

The years of presidential election in the United States coincide with the halving of Bitcoin, an event that halves the reward of miners and has historically led to price increases. In 2016 and 2020, these events were followed by significant growth periods for Bitcoin. By 2024, this coincidence could again play a crucial role in the evolution of cryptocurrency prices.

Preparation for Market Volatility

Volatility is an inherent feature of the cryptocurrency market, especially in times of political uncertainty. How can investors prepare for this volatility? By taking a long-term perspective and positioning themselves as predators rather than prey, investors can navigate these turbulent waters. Market corrections, such as those expected around 5 November, should be seen as opportunities to strengthen its positions.

In the current context of the cryptocurrency market, a crucial dynamic is emerging between individual investors and large financial institutions. BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, recently intensified its Bitcoin purchases, reaching impressive levels of $893 million on October 30 and $870 million on October 29. This massive acquisition strategy allows them to control a significant market share, possessing about 5% of the total Bitcoin supply that will be available by 2140. This raises questions about the balance of powers in the cryptocurrency world, where individuals must fight to maintain their influence in the face of these financial giants.

The importance of individual action is underlined by the call for personal investment. Individuals are encouraged to make strategic decisions to ensure a place in this expanding market. The idea is not to let the institutions completely dominate an asset which, in essence, belongs to no one. This struggle for control is crucial because it determines who will benefit most from the future growth of Bitcoin.

In parallel, interest in Bitcoin is often linked to major media and economic events. For example, when Bitcoin reaches new historical summits (ATH), media and public attention increases considerably, which can influence investment decisions. However, it is often too late for those waiting for these moments to enter the market. Smart investors, who have already established their strategy, are ready to capitalize on these increases in popularity.

BlackRock Ascension in the World of Bitcoin

BlackRock, as a major financial institution, has significantly increased its presence in the Bitcoin market. With massive purchases, they now hold a significant share of the total Bitcoin offer. This accumulation strategy aims to strengthen their position in the cryptocurrency sector, which could potentially influence prices and market dynamics. For individual investors, this represents a major challenge, as they must compete with these giants to maintain their influence and profit opportunities.

The dominance of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market is currently at a record level, exceeding 60%. This supremacy of Bitcoin means that, for now, Altcoins are not in a position to dominate the market. Massive investments, notably from giants like BlackRock, focus on Bitcoin, which strengthens its leadership position. BlackRock, for example, does not aim for small profits but seeks returns of at least 20 times their initial investment, which explains their aggressive strategy on Bitcoin ETFs.

However, this situation may change. Once the dominance of Bitcoin begins to decline, an « alt season » could emerge, where the altcoins could finally shine. For the time being, patience is essential for investors in Altcoins. The market cycles show that Bitcoin is often the first to benefit from the increases, followed by Ether, then by the other altcoins. Patience is therefore essential for investors who wish to capitalize on these movements.

In conclusion, although Bitcoin is currently at the centre of attention, altcoins may experience a significant period of growth in the future. Investors must remain vigilant and ready to act when the time comes.

BlackRock Strategy and Bitcoin Investment

BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, recently intensified its investments in Bitcoin, accumulating about 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply. This strategy shows their confidence in the long-term potential of Bitcoin. Their approach is to achieve substantial gains, which strongly influences the market. Why does BlackRock invest so much in Bitcoin? Their aim is to secure a dominant position before the market becomes too competitive.

The Potential Emergence of Altcoins

Although Bitcoin currently dominates, altcoins are not to be overlooked. Historically, after a period of strong dominance of Bitcoin, altcoins have often experienced significant increases. Investors must monitor market signals indicating a change in trend. Narratives around altcoins, such as those related to artificial intelligence or RWA chips, could play a crucial role in their future growth.