Analysis of the American Presidential Election 2024: Results and Implications

The US presidential election, a closely monitored event around the world, has recently taken place, and results are beginning to emerge. Election is distinguished by its system of indirect universal suffrage, where citizens vote for large voters rather than directly for a candidate. The first candidate to win 270 major voters won the election. This system highlights the importance of swing states, states that can switch from one party to another from one election to another, making their result crucial to determining the winner.

The election night began at midnight French time, with the first estimates published on social networks. Initially Donald Trump took an advance, but it was expected because it came from traditionally Republican states. Similarly, Kamala Harris began to accumulate votes in historically democratic states. However, it was from 2:00 a.m. that a more marked advance of the Republicans was observed, notably after the victory in Florida, a key state already won in 2016 and 2020.

The Indirect Universal Suffrage System

In the United States, the presidential election is based on an indirect universal suffrage system. Voters vote for large voters, who in turn vote for the president. This unique system means that the candidate who wins the majority of the major voters, 270 out of 538, wins the election. Why is this system so crucial? Because it focuses on swing states, states whose votes can change from one election to another, thus influencing the final result.

The Importance of the Swing States

Swing states play a key role in the US presidential election. These states, which are not firmly anchored in a political camp, can switch between Democrats and Republicans. Their importance is such that candidates often focus their campaign efforts on these regions to ensure their support. What are the most influential swing states? Florida, for example, is a key state that has often determined the outcome of past elections.

The results of the US presidential elections took an unexpected turn with a clear lead from the Republicans. Donald Trump won Florida with over 55% of the votes, which marked the beginning of a pro-Republican trend. As early as 2:00 in the morning, it became clear that the Republicans were surpassing their performance in the elections of 2020 and even 2016 in several states. The electoral map of the United States has gradually turned red, including in swing states and some traditionally democratic states such as Wisconsin and Michigan. This dynamic led to the announcement by Fox News, a pro-Republican media, of Donald Trump’s victory in the presidency. This result is historic, as it had been 131 years since an American president was re-elected for two non-consecutive terms, the last time being Grover Cleveland in 1893. In addition to the presidency, Republicans also seem to have taken control of Congress, including the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Florida: A Key Indicator

Florida played a crucial role in this election, with Donald Trump winning the state with over 55% of the vote. This result confirmed a Republican trend which then extended to other states. Florida, often seen as an electoral barometer, showed a clear preference for Republicans, which was an early indicator of the leadership that the election would take.

Donald Trump’s election to the presidency of the United States had an immediate impact on financial markets. Although his official appointment took place only in January 2025, the markets responded positively as soon as he announced his victory. Stock indices such as Nasdaq and S&P 500 recorded significant increases, with Nasdaq increasing by 1.8 points and S&P 500 by 1.4 points. This positive reaction is due to Trump’s electoral promises, including his commitment to supporting innovation and cryptocurrency in the United States. Indeed, Bitcoin has reached a new historical record, reaching $75,000, largely due to the prospect of a more cryptocurrency-friendly policy under Trump administration. Kamala Harris, although not opposed to cryptocurrency, had a more neutral position, which partly explains the market’s enthusiasm for Trump’s return. This dynamic shows how political expectations can influence financial markets, especially in innovative sectors such as cryptocurrency.

Financial Market Reactions

As soon as Donald Trump announced his victory, financial markets showed signs of relief and optimism. Nasdaq increased 1.8 points and S&P 500 increased 1.4 points. This increase reflects investors’ confidence in Trump’s promises to boost the US economy and support technological innovation.

Impact on Cryptocurrencies

Donald Trump’s election had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin, in particular, reached a new historical high of $75,000. This increase is attributed to Trump’s pro-cryptocurrency position, which promised to promote their development in the United States, in contrast to the more neutral position of Kamala Harris.

The US presidential election has profound implications not only nationally but also internationally. Expectations are particularly high for major ongoing conflictsbetween Israel and Palestine, as well as between Ukraine and Russia. Donald Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, although this seems unlikely before January 2025. It is anticipated that it will reduce US support for Ukraine, while allowing certain concessions to Russia to accelerate the end of the conflict. Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, although the United States historically supported Israel, Kamala Harris had expressed his desire to establish a ceasefire quickly, a position Trump did not adopt.

Economically, Trump’s election could strengthen protectionist measures under the slogan « America First », which could reduce European exports and severely affect China. These protectionist measures are similar to those that Kamala Harris could have applied. Trump is currently at 265 confirmed major voters, only 5 of the officialization of his election. Although the analysis is not further developed, the impact on finance, cryptocurrency and technology remains a key area of expertise.

Impact on International Conflicts

The election of Donald Trump could have a significant impact on international conflicts. As far as Ukraine and Russia are concerned, Trump said he would end the war in 24 hours, although this is unlikely before January 2025. It is likely to reduce US support for Ukraine and allow certain concessions to Russia to end the conflict. Regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, although the United States has always supported Israel, Trump has not expressed the same desire for a ceasefire as Kamala Harris.

The US presidential election of 2024 was marked by surprising results and significant implications for the political and economic future of the United States. Donald Trump was declared winner, marking a historic return to the presidency after a break in office, an event that had not taken place since Grover Cleveland in 1893. This victory was largely influenced by the results in the swing states, where the Republicans surpassed their performances in the previous elections. Financial markets responded positively to this announcement, with notable increases on Nasdaq and S&P 500, as well as a significant leap in Bitcoin, reaching a new historical record. Trump’s electoral promises, particularly with regard to foreign policy and economic protectionism, arouse high expectations, although their implementation is not expected until his inauguration in January 2025. The consequences of this election will be felt not only in the United States but also globally, affecting international relations and economic markets.

Back History of Donald Trump

Donald Trump won the presidential election of 2024, marking a historic return to the White House after a break in office. This phenomenon, rare in American history, had not been observed since Grover Cleveland in 1893. Trump’s victory was facilitated by strong Republican performances in swing states, as well as in traditionally democratic states such as Wisconsin and Michigan. The election also saw Republicans take control of Congress, strengthening their political position.

Financial Market Reactions

The announcement of Donald Trump’s victory had an immediate impact on financial markets. The Nasdaq increased 1.8 points, while the S&P 500 increased 1.4 points. Bitcoin, in particular, has seen a dramatic increase, reaching a new historic high of $75,000. This positive market reaction is explained by Trump’s promises to support the development of cryptocurrency in the United States, in contrast to the more neutral position of Kamala Harris.

Geopolitical and Economic Consequences

Expectations are high about Donald Trump’s foreign policies, particularly regarding conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine quickly, although it seems unlikely before his inauguration. In economic terms, Trump plans to strengthen protectionist measures, which could affect European and Chinese exports to the United States. These protectionist policies could have a significant impact on the global economy.