Where Are We Really? The Weak Ones are coming out at Loss!

In this video, Julien Roman addresses a crucial point concerning the current pivotal area of the Bitcoin market. Resistance to $93,600 is a key level to monitor, as it determines whether the upward trend can be maintained or whether we may switch to a downward trend. Julien stresses the importance of this area and the risks associated with a possible rupture.

69% of Bitcoins are still held by private individuals, which is quite rare in the world of digital assets. This distribution shows that individuals still have significant control over Bitcoin, unlike governments and institutions. Julien explains that this adoption by individuals helps to further secure the Bitcoin network. The more adoption, the stronger the blockchain becomes and the less institutions control it.

Julien also mentions that 5.9% of Bitcoins are held by investment funds via ETFs, while 7.5% of Bitcoins are considered lost. It recalls that only 21 million Bitcoins will ever be created, with about 19.7 million already in circulation. The principle of halving, which reduces the reward of miners by half every 210,000 blocks, makes Bitcoin increasingly rare.

Finally, Julien warns against short-term holders, or short-term holders, who tend to sell at a loss during periods of volatility. These massive sales, often influenced by media and social networks, can have a significant impact on the market.

Distribution of Bitcoin Ownership

69% of Bitcoins are held by private individuals, which is a rather surprising figure. This distribution shows that individuals still have significant control over Bitcoin, unlike governments and institutions. Julien explains that this adoption by individuals helps to further secure the Bitcoin network. The more adoption, the stronger the blockchain becomes and the less institutions control it.

Governments hold only 1.5% of Bitcoins, with countries like Argentina and the United States looking to increase their reserves. Investment funds via ETFs hold 5.9% of Bitcoins, while 7.5% are considered lost. Companies hold about 3.9% of Bitcoins, and Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator of Bitcoin, holds about 1 million, or 4.6% of the total.

Risks Associated with Short-Term Holders

Julien warns against the short-term holders, or short-term holders, who tend to sell at a loss during periods of volatility. These massive sales, often influenced by media and social networks, can have a significant impact on the market. More than 26,000 Bitcoins were sold at a loss, worth over $2.4 billion.

The Spend Output Profit Ratio is a key indicator for understanding these movements. When the RPD passes below 1, this indicates that short-term holders have deliberately sold. This metric is crucial to anticipate market movements and avoid the pitfalls of trading robots, which are more experienced and equipped than individual investors.

In this section, we will explore key indicators that show that Bull Run is not finished. Julien Roman, an expert in cryptography and analysis, shares his personal opinion on the current market situation. He stressed the importance of monitoring both bullish and bearish indicators to make informed decisions.

The $88,000 area is a critical level to monitor. If this level is broken, it could result in a cascade of liquidations and a fall in prices. However, experienced investors place purchasing orders at these levels to take advantage of potential declines. The primary trend remains upward, as evidenced by the analysis of resistances and supports on TradingView.

Another crucial indicator is the net flow, which measures the entry of money into the market. Currently, the inflows are positive, which is a good sign for the continuation of the Bull Run. Julien Roman also stresses the importance of monitoring the momentum on futures, especially for Ethereum and Solana, who show signs of recovery.

Finally, the swing on trade shows a reduction in the number of Bitcoin available on trading platforms, indicating an increase in demand and a reduction in supply, which is favourable for prices.

Key Indicators to Monitor

The $88,000 area is a critical level to monitor. If this level is broken, it could result in a cascade of liquidations and a fall in prices. However, experienced investors place purchasing orders at these levels to take advantage of potential declines. The primary trend remains upward, as evidenced by the analysis of resistances and supports on TradingView.

Another crucial indicator is the net flow, which measures the entry of money into the market. Currently, the inflows are positive, which is a good sign for the continuation of the Bull Run. Julien Roman also stresses the importance of monitoring the momentum on futures, especially for Ethereum and Solana, who show signs of recovery.

Balance on Exchange and Impact on the Price

The swing on trade shows a reduction in the number of Bitcoin available on trading platforms, indicating an increase in demand and a reduction in supply, which is favourable for prices. This supply reduction, combined with growing demand, creates a positive shock on the price of Bitcoin.

At the beginning of the year, similar movements are often observed, as shown in previous cycles. For example, in Cycle 2, the market experienced significant movements at the beginning of the year, which could be repeated in the current cycle.

https://business-crypto.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Graphic-show-trend-haussiyre-du-Bitcoin.webp

The volatility of the Bitcoin market is a recurring phenomenon, especially at the beginning of the year. This year is no exception, with significant movements observed from 7 January 2025. Like previous cycles, we are witnessing falls and rallies that may seem alarming, but are actually quite normal. Understanding these cycles is crucial not to panic and seize opportunities.

On the current cycle, we saw a fall in early January, followed by a rally until 21 February. This trend is similar to what we observed in previous cycles, notably in 2017 and 2021. Current volatility is therefore expected and should not be a source of stress. On the contrary, it offers buying opportunities for those who know how to identify them.

It is important to note that current movements are still modest compared to previous cycles. For example, in 2017 and 2021 we saw corrections of 40% and 20%, while this year we are talking about a correction of 15%. This shows that the market is still relatively stable despite appearances.

Past and Present Cycles

Looking at previous cycles, there are striking similarities with the current situation. For example, in 2017 and 2021, we saw significant falls followed by impressive rallies. These cycles show us that volatility is an inherent feature of the Bitcoin market.

Currently, we are in a similar phase, with a fall in early January followed by a rally until 21 February. This trend is quite normal and should not be interpreted as a sign of market weakness.. On the contrary, it offers opportunities for those who know how to seize them.

It is also important to note that current movements are still modest compared to previous cycles. For example, in 2017 and 2021 we saw corrections of 40% and 20%, while this year we are talking about a correction of 15%. This shows that the market is still relatively stable despite appearances.

Purchase Opportunities

Corrective phases offer buying opportunities for those who can identify them. For example, during the fall in early January, some technical levels were tested, offering attractive entry points for investors.

It is crucial not to panic during these correction phases. On the contrary, they must be seen as opportunities to accumulate assets at advantageous prices.. For example, during the fall in early January, some technical levels were tested, offering attractive entry points for investors.

It is also important to note that current movements are still modest compared to previous cycles. For example, in 2017 and 2021 we saw corrections of 40% and 20%, while this year we are talking about a correction of 15%. This shows that the market is still relatively stable despite appearances.

https://business-crypto.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Graphic-montant-la-volatility-du-Bitcoin-sur.webp